# The Philippine Numbers Trick Behind Repeating Poverty > Minimum wages are rising, yet 55% of families call themselves poor. Crossing the poverty line on annual income is not the same as living with security. I looked at the breakdown behind the numbers and the families who escape poverty only to return. - Published: 2026-11-07 - URL: https://abalol.xyz/en/posts/poverty-churn/ - Language: en - Tags: philippines, poverty, economy - Author: Tomohiro Owada - Site: Tomo's Diary (https://abalol.xyz/llms.txt) --- A higher minimum wage is not the same as escaping poverty and being able to live without worrying. Looking again at the poverty figures in the Philippines, that difference caught my attention. In [my earlier post](https://abalol.xyz/en/posts/ph-poverty-line/), I wrote about the gap between the government's poverty rate and the poverty people report themselves. This time, I want to look at who is leaving poverty and who is coming back. ## Still poor, even with higher wages The minimum daily wage for non-agricultural workers in the National Capital Region has risen to [₱755 under Wage Order NCR-28](https://nwpc.dole.gov.ph/ncr/). Some industries and smaller establishments have a rate of ₱718. Within the comparisons I researched earlier, the purchasing power of the minimum wage exceeds past levels even after accounting for inflation in the capital region. Yet in the [September 2026 survey by SWS (Social Weather Stations, a private polling organization)](https://sws.org.ph/social-weather-report-self-rated-poverty-rises-by-6-to-55-while-self-rated-food-poverty-rises-by-8-to-44-between-june-and-september-2026/), 55% described their families as poor, up from 49% in June. These are national figures, so they cannot be compared directly with wages in the capital region. Still, wage increases alone do not explain the picture. A minimum daily wage does not guarantee work every day in the first place. In the [September 2026 employment survey by the PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority)](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/money/economy/1008493/ph-unemployment-climbs-to-5-4-in-september-2026-jobless-filipinos-at-2-86m/story/), self-employed people without paid employees and unpaid family workers accounted for 35.4% of employed people. They are not in a position to receive a higher daily wage through a wage order. The [2026 report by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)](https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-surveys-philippines-2026_f0e0c581-en/full-report/strengthening-formal-employment-and-social-protection_9c646caa.html) puts informal employment at 66.6%, defining it as employment without pension contributions. That is not the share of day laborers, but it gives a sense of how widespread work without adequate employment and social protection is. ## Not poor over the year [The PSA's official poverty rate for 2025 was 9.7%](https://bworldonline.com/top-stories/2026/08/21/771712/poverty-rate-falls-to-single-digit-in-2025/). That is a share of individuals, while SWS's 55% is a share of families. The years and what the surveys measure are different too. The official statistics use annual income. Even if someone alternates between periods with work and periods without it, they fall on the non-poor side if their income over the year exceeds the poverty line. The figure does not directly measure whether they can count on putting food on the table every month. With work like day labor, I imagine there are people whose lives feel like this: they earned enough today to get out, then had no work tomorrow and fell back in. I do not mean the statistics classify people day by day. I am talking about the insecurity of their lives as I see it. When we hear that poverty has fallen, it can sound as though the same people have graduated from poverty and will never return. But the change in the head count alone does not show who left and who entered. That is what feels like a "numbers trick" to me. The statistics are not lying; the reassurance we take from them is too great. ## Getting out, then coming back SWS does not hide the people who returned. Of all families in September, 7.2% were "Newly Poor," meaning they were last non-poor one to four years ago, and 9.0% were "Usually Poor," last non-poor five or more years ago. Together, 16.2% had experienced being non-poor but now described themselves as poor. Here, non-poor includes families on the borderline between poor and not poor. Meanwhile, only 15.2% were "Always Non-Poor," having never experienced poverty. Turn that around, and about 85% of families are either poor now or have experienced poverty in the past. That does not mean everyone who was poor in the past said they still feel insecure today. Even so, I suspect people within a similarly insecure layer of society keep trading places on either side of the poverty line. This survey alone cannot tell us who has crossed it how many times. But "getting out" and "never having to go back" are different things. ## Living right next to poverty Besides the 55% who called themselves poor, another 9% of families placed themselves on the borderline. When I see that 55%, I think about living without a sense of security, with poverty always right in front of you. I wonder whether most of the country is either living in poverty or living close to the fear of falling back into it. That is my view, not a statistic measuring fear. Wage increases are necessary. But it is hard to call something an exit from poverty if losing work sends you straight back. You may have graduated on paper, yet you could be back tomorrow. How many people could feel secure holding that kind of graduation certificate?